Week 5 preview: the hot games and the trends behind them

Week 5 is here. 51 games have a trend pick this week, and 13 of them carry a 🔥 featured pick: the model's total 4+ points off the market, the one pick type above break-even every season since 2024.

The hot games

Navy at Air Force

• Total: Over 45.8, follow the model, 64%. Model within a point of the spread

Boston College at SMU

• Total: Under 55.5, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Penn State at Northwestern

• Spread: Penn State -2.8, fade the model, 67%. Under-3 pt spread
• Total: Over 45.5, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Michigan at Minnesota

• Total: Over 43.2, follow the model, 62%. Regional road trip

Temple at South Florida

• Total: Over 48.2, follow the model, 67%. Model 1-3 pts higher on the home team

Army at Louisiana Tech

• Total: Over 47.5, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Alabama at Mississippi State

• Total: Under 59.8, follow the model, 62%. Average-paced game

Michigan State at Wisconsin

• Total: Over 43.5, follow the model, 62%. Regional road trip

Western Michigan at Buffalo

• Total: Over 46.5, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Ohio State at Iowa

• Total: Over 45.5, follow the model, 72%. 14-21 pt spread

Middle Tennessee at Kansas

• Total: Over 49.5, follow the model, 72%. 14-21 pt spread

Akron at Central Michigan

• Total: Over 46.8, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Virginia at Florida State

• Total: Over 51.5, follow the model, 62%. Regional road trip

The trends coming in

• Follow: 14-21 pt spread (total): 21-8 this season.
• Follow: Slight offensive edge (total): 25-13 this season.
• Follow: Regional road trip (total): 36-22 this season.
• Follow: Model 1-3 pts higher on the home team (total): 18-9 this season.
• Fade: Afternoon kickoff (spread): 33-21 this season.
• Follow: Average-paced game (total): 25-15 this season.

Games to watch

Western Kentucky at New Mexico State

• Spread: New Mexico State -2.5, fade the model, 61%. Afternoon kickoff
• Total: Under 57.2, follow the model, 62%. Average-paced game

North Texas at Tulsa

• Spread: Tulsa +1.2, fade the model, 67%. Under-3 pt spread
• Total: Under 57.2, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Liberty at Delaware

• Total: Over 50.2, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

Old Dominion at Georgia State

• Total: Under 51.5, follow the model, 62%. Regional road trip

California at UNLV

• Total: Under 53.5, follow the model, 66%. Slight offensive edge

This week's parlay

• Ohio State at Iowa: Over 45.5
• Middle Tennessee at Kansas: Over 49.5
• Western Michigan at Buffalo: Over 46.5

Every pick, every trend and every game is on the board. See this week's picks.

Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.