Week 5 review: best calls, bad beats and the trends that moved
Week 5 is in the books. Our 🔥 featured picks - the model's totals 4+ points off the market - went 4-9, and the rest of the model picks went 12-14.
Best calls
- Penn State at Northwestern: Northwestern +2.5 🔥. Final: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34.
- Boston College at SMU: Under 55.2 🔥. Final: Boston College 16, SMU 25. Backed by Slight offensive edge (26-14).
- Army at Louisiana Tech: Over 47.2 🔥. Final: Army 29, Louisiana Tech 31. Backed by Mild look-ahead spot (16-5).
- Bowling Green at Miami (OH): Over 42.2 🔥. Final: Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. Backed by Slight offensive edge (26-14).
- Penn State at Northwestern: Over 46.8 🔥. Final: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34. Backed by Slight offensive edge (25-14).
Bad beats
- Old Dominion at Georgia State: Under 51.5 missed by 0.5. Final: Old Dominion 10, Georgia State 42.
- Ohio State at Iowa: Over 46.0 missed by 1. Final: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14.
- Texas State at San Diego State: Under 57.5 missed by 2.5. Final: Texas State 29, San Diego State 31.
Trends that hit, and trends that missed
- ✅ Model 3-6 pts higher on the visitor (total): 4-1 this week
- ✅ Slight offensive edge (total): 7-6 this week
- ✅ Under-3 pt spread (total): 4-3 this week
- ❌ Regional road trip (total): 5-10 this week
- ❌ Average-paced game (total): 6-10 this week
- ❌ Model within a point of the spread (total): 2-5 this week
Trends on the move
- New model support: Mild look-ahead spot (total), the model now 19-6.
- New model struggle: Teams with 4-6 games played (total), the model now 14-26.
- New model struggle: FBS vs FCS (spread), the model now 6-14.
- New model struggle: Slow-paced game (spread), the model now 25-38.
- Dropped out: Slight offensive edge (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
- Dropped out: Regional road trip (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
- Dropped out: Model 1-3 pts higher on the home team (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
What we're working on
- Memphis at Charlotte: the model had Memphis by 9.8; Memphis won by 51. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
- Stanford at Wake Forest: the model had Wake Forest by 14.9; Wake Forest won by 54. The biggest input was defensive efficiency edge.
- Baylor at Arizona State: the model had Baylor by 1.3; Baylor won by 36. The biggest input was defensive efficiency edge.
- Early-season calibration: the model has run low on the home margin in weeks 1-2, and we are testing whether its early-season adjustment is sized right.
- Line movement: how far a line moves between open and close is now a tracked situation, and we are watching whether it earns a place in the trends.
The Thursday preview has this week's hot games. See this week's picks.
Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.