Week 6 preview: the hot games and the trends behind them
Week 6 is here. 56 games have a model pick this week, and 18 of them carry a 🔥 featured pick: the model's total 4+ points off the market.
The hot games
- Total: Over 43.5. Mild look-ahead spot
- Spread: Tulane +3.0. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 48.5. Model 3-6 pts higher on the visitor
- Total: Over 48.5. Model 3-6 pts higher on the visitor
- Total: Over 47.8.
- Spread: Ohio -3.0. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 46.2. Spread hasn't moved
- Total: Under 53.5. Mild look-ahead spot
Air Force at Northern Illinois
- Total: Over 46.8.
- Spread: San José State -6.0. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 42.5. Spread hasn't moved
- Spread: Ball State +36.8. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 52.5. Mild look-ahead spot
- Spread: Kansas +15.8. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 51.2. 14-21 pt spread
- Total: Over 55.2. Spread hasn't moved
- Total: Over 41.8. Mild look-ahead spot
- Total: Over 51.5. Spread hasn't moved
- Spread: BYU -10.0. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 46.2.
- Total: Under 58.8.
- Total: Over 47.2. Spread hasn't moved
Kent State at Western Michigan
- Total: Over 43.5. Mild look-ahead spot
- Spread: Hawai'i +20.8. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 50.5. 14-21 pt spread
The trends coming in
- Model support: Mild look-ahead spot (total): the model is 19-7 this season.
- Model struggles: Teams with 4-6 games played (spread): the model is 10-22 this season.
- Model struggles: Afternoon kickoff (spread): the model is 23-39 this season.
- Model struggles: Spread moved 2+ pts against the model (spread): the model is 16-29 this season.
- Model struggles: Teams with 4-6 games played (total): the model is 15-27 this season.
- Model support: 14-21 pt spread (total): the model is 23-12 this season.
Games to watch
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
- Spread: Western Kentucky -1.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Under 56.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: UTSA -7.0. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 49.8. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: UNLV +3.0. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Under 47.8. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: Purdue +2.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 50.8. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: Sam Houston +13.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Under 52.5. Trends disagree with the model.
Every pick, every trend and every game is on the board. See this week's picks.
Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.
Corrected on October 13, 2026. This post first included a weekly parlay, which the site no longer offers, and said featured totals had been above break-even in every season since 2024; in 2026 they have not been. The lines above are the numbers when the post was written on Thursday. Every pick was graded at its line when it locked, two hours before kickoff.