Week 6 review: best calls, bad beats and the trends that moved

Week 6 is in the books. Our 🔥 featured picks - the model's totals 4+ points off the market - went 7-11, and all of the model's total picks went 11-15. Spread picks went 10-8; the spread side has no measured edge, so they are reported apart.

Best calls

• Illinois at Michigan State: Over 48.5 🔥. Final: Illinois 38, Michigan State 37. Backed by Spread hasn't moved (22-11).
• Iowa at Washington: Over 41.5 🔥. Final: Iowa 41, Washington 24. Backed by Mild look-ahead spot (19-8).
• Kansas at Utah: Over 49.5 🔥. Final: Kansas 24, Utah 41. Backed by 14-21 pt spread (20-11).
• Central Michigan at Ohio: Ohio -2.5 🔥. Final: Central Michigan 14, Ohio 31.
• Duke at Georgia Tech: Over 45.5 🔥. Final: Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28. Backed by Mild look-ahead spot (20-8).

Bad beats

• Central Michigan at Ohio: Over 45.5 missed by 0.5. Final: Central Michigan 14, Ohio 31.
• Kansas at Utah: Kansas +15.5 missed by 1.5. Final: Kansas 24, Utah 41.

Trends that hit, and trends that missed

• ✅ Mild look-ahead spot (total): 4-2 this week
• ✅ Spread hasn't moved (total): 3-2 this week
• ✅ 14-21 pt spread (total): 2-1 this week

Trends on the move

• New model struggle: Two big-play offenses (total), the model now 8-15.
• New model struggle: Model 6-10 pts above the total (spread), the model now 8-14.
• New model struggle: Cross-country road trip (total), the model now 9-15.
• Dropped out: Afternoon kickoff (spread) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
• Dropped out: Slow-paced game (spread) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
• Dropped out: Mid-season (weeks 5-9) (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.

What we're working on

• San Diego State at Oregon State: the model had Oregon State by 9.1; Oregon State won by 52. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
• Buffalo at Toledo: the model had Toledo by 23.4; Buffalo won by 15. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
• Ole Miss at Vanderbilt: the model had Ole Miss by 4.5; Ole Miss won by 35. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
• Early-season calibration: the model has run low on the home margin in weeks 1-2, and we are testing whether its early-season adjustment is sized right.
• Line movement: how far a line moves between open and close is now a tracked situation, and we are watching whether it earns a place in the trends.

The Thursday preview has this week's hot games. See this week's picks.

Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.