Week 7 preview: the Strong picks and the trends behind them
Week 7 is here. 47 games have a model pick this week, and 15 of them carry a Strong pick: the model is 6+ points off the market on the spread or total.
The Strong picks
- Spread: Houston -4.5.
- Spread: UCLA -2.5.
- Total: Over 42.5. Trends disagree with the model.
Arkansas State at Southern Miss
- Spread: Southern Miss +7.
- Total: Over 46.5.
- Spread: Army -2.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 54.5.
- Total: Over 44.5. 14-21 pt spread
- Total: Over 41.5.
- Spread: Maryland -4.5.
- Spread: Oregon -7.
- Total: Over 51.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: Washington +3.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 51.5.
- Total: Over 40.5. Spread hasn't moved
- Spread: Colorado State +14.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Under 69.5. 14-21 pt spread
- Spread: Syracuse +14.5.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
- Total: Over 43.5. Mild look-ahead spot
Florida International at Jacksonville State
- Spread: Jacksonville State -3.
The trends coming in
- Model struggles: Spread moved slightly against the model (spread): the model is 17-36 this season.
- Model support: Spread moved 2+ pts the model's way (spread): the model is 38-22 this season.
- Model struggles: Teams with 4-6 games played (total): the model is 34-52 this season.
- Model support: Mild look-ahead spot (total): the model is 23-12 this season.
- Model struggles: FBS vs FCS (spread): the model is 6-14 this season.
- Model struggles: Model 10+ pts higher on the visitor (spread): the model is 9-18 this season.
Games to watch
- Total: Over 46.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Spread: Cincinnati +1.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Over 47.5. Trends disagree with the model.
- Total: Under 58.5. Trends disagree with the model.
Every pick, every trend and every game is on the board. See this week's picks.
Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.
Corrected on October 22, 2026. This post first called these games "featured picks" and "the hot games". The Featured label was retired on October 15, the day this post went up, and these are the week's Strong picks, chosen by the same rule. The Featured record it quoted (2026 so far 71-77) is the record frozen at the retirement, kept on the college football Methodology & archive page. The picks and lines above are unchanged.