Week 7 review: best calls, bad beats and the trends that moved
Week 7 is in the books. The model's Strong picks - the model is 6+ points off the market on the spread or total - went 7-9-2, and all of the model's total picks went 12-7. Spread picks went 7-13-2, reported apart.
Best calls
- Florida Atlantic at Army: Army -2.5. Final: Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56.
- Florida Atlantic at Army: Over 55.5. Final: Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56. Backed by Model 6-10 pts above the total (15-10).
- UNLV at Air Force: Over 47.5. Final: UNLV 31, Air Force 41. Backed by Model 6-10 pts above the total (15-10).
- Troy at Louisiana: Louisiana -3. Final: Troy 6, Louisiana 33.
- Washington at Purdue: Washington +3. Final: Washington 38, Purdue 26.
Bad beats
- Oklahoma State at Houston: Houston -4 missed by 1. Final: Oklahoma State 32, Houston 35.
- North Carolina at Duke: Over 46.5 missed by 2.5. Final: North Carolina 24, Duke 20.
- Penn State at Michigan: Michigan -6 missed by 3. Final: Penn State 18, Michigan 21.
Trends that hit, and trends that missed
- ✅ Spread hasn't moved (total): 4-2 this week
- ✅ Model 6-10 pts above the total (total): 4-2 this week
- ✅ Total moved 2+ pts the model's way (total): 2-1 this week
- ❌ Model within a point of the spread (total): 1-3 this week
Trends on the move
- New model struggle: Average-paced game (spread), the model now 42-63.
- New model support: Model within a point of the spread (total), the model now 32-20.
- New model struggle: A team off a bye (spread), the model now 23-35.
- New model struggle: Big Ten matchup (spread), the model now 9-17.
- Dropped out: Teams with 4-6 games played (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
- Dropped out: Model 3-6 pts higher on the home team (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
- Dropped out: Model 6-10 pts above the total (spread) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
What we're working on
- Ohio at Sacramento State: the model had Ohio by 10.9; Ohio won by 41. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
- Alabama at Tennessee: the model had Alabama by 12.6; Tennessee won by 16. The biggest input was defensive efficiency edge.
- Colorado State at Texas State: the model had Texas State by 12.5; Texas State won by 39. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
- Early-season calibration: the model has run low on the home margin in weeks 1-2, and we are testing whether its early-season adjustment is sized right.
- Line movement: how far a line moves between open and close is now a tracked situation, and we are watching whether it earns a place in the trends.
The Thursday preview has this week's Strong picks. See this week's picks.
Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.
Corrected on October 22, 2026. This review first called the week's Strong picks "featured picks" and marked them 🔥, although the Featured label was retired on October 15. The picks, results and records above are unchanged.