Week 8 preview: the Strong picks and the trends behind them

Week 8 is here. 51 games have a model pick this week, and 15 of them carry a Strong pick: the model is 6+ points off the market on the spread or total.

The Strong picks

San Diego State at Colorado State

• Total: Under 63.5.

Air Force at Wyoming

• Spread: Air Force -5.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 45.5. Total moved 2+ pts the model's way

Colorado at Oklahoma State

• Spread: Colorado +13.5.

Miami (OH) at Central Michigan

• Total: Over 39.5. Mild look-ahead spot

West Virginia at TCU

• Spread: TCU -10. Spread moved 2+ pts the model's way

Michigan State at UCLA

• Spread: UCLA -14.5.

Utah State at Texas State

• Total: Under 61.5.

Oregon at Illinois

• Spread: Oregon -9.5.

San José State at Nevada

• Spread: San José State +6.

New Mexico State at Sam Houston

• Spread: Sam Houston +3.

Liberty at Kennesaw State

• Spread: Kennesaw State +9.5.

Tennessee at South Carolina

• Spread: Tennessee +2.5.

Eastern Michigan at Ohio

• Total: Over 48.5. Model 6-10 pts above the total

Pittsburgh at Miami

• Total: Over 48.5. 14-21 pt spread

Missouri State at Delaware

• Spread: Delaware -3.

The trends coming in

• Model struggles: Spread moved slightly against the model (spread): the model is 26-48 this season.
• Model struggles: FBS vs FCS (spread): the model is 6-16 this season.
• Model struggles: Average-paced game (spread): the model is 43-65 this season.
• Model support: Mild look-ahead spot (total): the model is 31-17 this season.
• Model support: Spread moved 2+ pts the model's way (spread): the model is 40-24 this season.
• Model struggles: A team off a bye (spread): the model is 23-37 this season.

Games to watch

Army at Tulsa

• Spread: Tulsa -1.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 54.5. Mild look-ahead spot

NC State at Stanford

• Spread: NC State -6.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Indiana at Michigan

• Spread: Indiana -7. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 41.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Texas A&M at Alabama

• Total: Under 50.5. Mild look-ahead spot

North Texas at Navy

• Spread: North Texas -2.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Every pick, every trend and every game is on the board. See this week's picks.

Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Corrected on October 22, 2026. This post first called these games "featured picks" and "the hot games", and gave a 2026 Featured record that counted games played after the Featured label was retired on October 15. They are the week's Strong picks, chosen by the same rule. The Featured record, frozen at the retirement, is on the college football Methodology & archive page. The picks and lines above are unchanged.