Week 8 review: best calls, bad beats and the trends that moved
Week 8 is in the books. The model's Strong picks - the model is 6+ points off the market on the spread or total - went 4-12, and all of the model's total picks went 8-12. Spread picks went 10-15, reported apart.
Best calls
- Pittsburgh at Miami: Over 48.5. Final: Pittsburgh 23, Miami 52. Backed by 14-21 pt spread (28-18).
- Utah State at Texas State: Under 60.5. Final: Utah State 17, Texas State 20.
- Missouri State at Delaware: Delaware -3. Final: Missouri State 38, Delaware 61.
- Miami (OH) at Central Michigan: Over 40.5. Final: Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27. Backed by Mild look-ahead spot (33-19).
- San Diego State at Colorado State: Colorado State +1.5. Final: San Diego State 49, Colorado State 56.
Bad beats
- Indiana at Michigan: Indiana -7.5 missed by 0.5. Final: Indiana 13, Michigan 6.
- Tennessee at South Carolina: Tennessee +2.5 missed by 0.5. Final: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 27.
- Texas A&M at Alabama: Under 49.5 missed by 1.5. Final: Texas A&M 20, Alabama 31.
- New Mexico State at Sam Houston: Sam Houston +3 missed by 3. Final: New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24.
Trends that hit, and trends that missed
- ✅ Model within a point of the spread (total): 3-0 this week
- ✅ Spread hasn't moved (total): 3-2 this week
- ❌ Total moved 2+ pts the model's way (total): 1-3 this week
- ❌ Mild look-ahead spot (total): 4-5 this week
- ❌ 14-21 pt spread (total): 1-2 this week
Trends on the move
- New model struggle: Model 1-3 pts higher on the visitor (spread), the model now 23-36.
- New model struggle: Model 6-10 pts higher on the visitor (spread), the model now 18-29.
- New model struggle: Big 12 matchup (total), the model now 9-16.
- New model struggle: One team a win from a bowl (total), the model now 12-19.
- Dropped out: Spread moved 2+ pts the model's way (spread) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
- Dropped out: Mild look-ahead spot (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
- Dropped out: Model within a point of the spread (total) cooled off and no longer qualifies.
What we're working on
- Hawai'i at Northern Illinois: the model had Northern Illinois by 1.2; Hawai'i won by 35. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: the model had Oklahoma State by 3.6; Oklahoma State won by 33. The biggest input was defensive efficiency edge.
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: the model had Georgia Tech by 6.9; Boston College won by 22. The biggest input was offensive efficiency edge.
- Early-season calibration: the model has run low on the home margin in weeks 1-2, and we are testing whether its early-season adjustment is sized right.
- Line movement: how far a line moves between open and close is now a tracked situation, and we are watching whether it earns a place in the trends.
The Thursday preview has this week's Strong picks. See this week's picks.
Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.