Week 10 preview: the Strong picks and the trends behind them

Week 10 is here. 61 games have a model pick this week, and 14 of them carry a Strong pick: the model is 6+ points off the market on the spread or total.

The Strong picks

Air Force at Army

• Total: Over 45.5.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

• Spread: Kansas State +6.
• Total: Under 62.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Nebraska at Illinois

• Total: Over 49.5.

UTSA at Florida Atlantic

• Spread: UTSA -6.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Under 72.5.

Merrimack at Wake Forest

• Spread: Wake Forest -47.5. Home team has covered 3+ in a row

New Mexico at Nevada

• Spread: New Mexico -10. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 36.5.

Rice at North Texas

• Spread: North Texas -17.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Under 64.5.

West Virginia at Texas Tech

• Spread: Texas Tech -16.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Under 65.5.

Texas State at Oregon State

• Spread: Texas State +6.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Under 71.5.

Iowa at Northwestern

• Spread: Northwestern -2.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 45.5.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

• Spread: Mississippi State -3.

South Florida at East Carolina

• Total: Over 39.5.

South Alabama at Louisiana

• Spread: Louisiana -7.5.

Ohio at Akron

• Spread: Akron +12.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 51.5. Home team has been steady

The trends coming in

• Model struggles: Home team's last 3+ went under (spread): the model is 4-19 this season.
• Model struggles: Home team on a 3+ game losing streak (spread): the model is 12-27 this season.
• Model struggles: Big Ten matchup (total): the model is 13-28 this season.
• Model struggles: Under-3 pt spread (spread): the model is 19-37 this season.
• Model struggles: Spread moved slightly against the model (spread): the model is 32-55 this season.
• Model struggles: A team beating expectations (total): the model is 19-36 this season.

Games to watch

Rutgers at Wisconsin

• Spread: Rutgers +17.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 45.5. Trends disagree with the model.

UCLA at Minnesota

• Spread: UCLA -5.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 39.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Virginia Tech at SMU

• Spread: SMU -6.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 56.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Hawai'i at UTEP

• Spread: UTEP +9.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Ball State at Massachusetts

• Spread: Massachusetts -2.5. Trends disagree with the model.
• Total: Over 48.5. Trends disagree with the model.

Every pick, every trend and every game is on the board. See this week's picks.

Trends describe what has happened; they are not guarantees. Not betting advice.