Friday night: the college spreads went 3-0, and hockey went 1-3

The night in one line

Friday finished 5-6 for -1.45u across the two sports that played. Hockey supplied four graded leans and finished 1-3 for -2.09u. College football supplied seven leans and finished 4-3 for +0.64u. Football had no game on Friday, so its card stands where Thursday left it. Three hockey games produced 20 goals, and five college games produced 244 points.

Hockey: Buffalo swept the card, Minnesota saved the total

By market, the hockey card split three ways. The moneyline went 0-1 for -1.00u. The puck line went 0-1 for -1.00u. The totals went 1-1 for -0.09u.

Buffalo beat Columbus 5-2, and all three calls in that game lost. Columbus played the second night of a back-to-back, and the model had the Blue Jackets at 44.5% against a market price of 39.5%, a gap of 5 points, in the moderate tier. The moneyline at +142 lost for -1.00u. The puck line at +1.5 and -170 lost for -1.00u, in the slight tier, with the model at 64% against the market at 60.5%. Buffalo won by 3, so the 1.5-goal cushion was not enough. The Under 6.5 at -118 lost for -1.00u, in the slight tier, with the model at 55% against the market at 51.5%. Seven goals were scored, half a goal over the line.

Minnesota beat San Jose 4-1, and the one graded call in that game won. The Under 6.5 at -110 won for +0.91u, in the moderate tier, with the model at 55.5% against the market at 50%. Five goals were scored, 1.5 under the line. Jesper Wallstedt started for Minnesota and Yaroslav Askarov for San Jose, the same pairing the goalie piece looked at on Friday afternoon. The moneyline and the puck line in that game carried no strength label, so neither is a graded lean.

Anaheim beat Calgary 5-3, and no graded lean was on the board in that game. Eight goals were scored, the most in any game on the night.

The strength split

The slight tier went 4-4 for -0.36u across the two sports. The moderate tier went 1-2 for -1.09u. The strong tier held no call.

In hockey alone, the slight tier went 0-2 for -2.00u and the moderate tier went 1-1 for -0.09u. In college football alone, the slight tier went 4-2 for +1.64u and the moderate tier went 0-1 for -1.00u. The tiers sort the size of the gap at the lock, and one night does not reorder them. A slight label is a narrow gap, not a settled result.

College football: the spreads went 3-0

The college slate covered five games, and seven leans were on the board. The spreads went 3-0 for +2.73u. The totals went 1-3 for -2.09u. Combined, 4-3 for +0.64u.

SMU beat Virginia Tech 51-28, and both calls in that game won. SMU -6 won, in the slight tier: the model had SMU by 8.5 against a market line of 6, and SMU won by 23. The Over 57.5 won, in the slight tier: the model total was 60 against a market total of 57.5, and 79 points were scored, 21.5 over the line.

East Carolina beat South Florida 20-17, and the two calls split. East Carolina -1.5 won, in the slight tier: the model had East Carolina by 3 against a market line of 1.5, and East Carolina won by 3, covering by 1.5 points. The Over 39.5 lost, in the slight tier: the model total was 45.5 against a market total of 39.5, and 37 points were scored, 2.5 under the line.

New Mexico beat Nevada 31-3, and the two calls split the same way. New Mexico -10.5 won, in the slight tier: the model had New Mexico by 13 against a market line of 10.5, and New Mexico won by 28, covering by 17.5 points. The Over 39.5 lost, in the slight tier: the model total was 46 against a market total of 39.5, and 34 points were scored, 5.5 under the line.

Illinois beat Nebraska 24-13, and only one call was on the board. There was no spread call: the model had Illinois by 4 against a market line of 4.5, too small a gap to call. The Over 52.5 lost, in the moderate tier, with 37 points scored against a model total of 60 and a market total of 52.5. Illinois won by 11, and the total still finished 15.5 under the line.

Arizona beat TCU 29-28, and no lean was on the board in that game. The model had Arizona by 5.5 against a market line of 6, and a model total of 46.5 against a market total of 46.5, so neither market cleared the bar.

The season picture

Through Friday, the hockey card stands at 198-202 and -3.39u: the puck line at 49-48 and +11.81u, the moneyline at 78-84 and -11.54u, and the totals at 71-70 and -3.65u.

The puck line is still the only hockey market ahead, and it is ahead by more than the card is behind. Without it, the hockey card would read 149-154 for -15.20u. With it, the card reads 198-202 for -3.39u.

The football card stands at 77-82-1 and -0.98u, unchanged after an idle Friday. College football season figures are not restated here: they stand where the Saturday piece left them, and Friday's seven games are counted in the night figures above, once, and only there.

How to read tonight's card

The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick.

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