Friday night: every hockey lean lost on a 22-goal night, and Sacramento State won outright
The night in one line
Zero wins, eight losses, and -8.00u in hockey. One win, three losses, and -2.09u in college football. No NFL game kicked off on Friday, so the NFL card is unchanged. Across the two graded cards, 1-11 and -10.09u. Three hockey games produced 22 goals, and every total went over the 6.5 line.
Hockey: three games, 22 goals, no winning lean
New Jersey beat Vegas 5-2. The model put Vegas at about 55% against the market's 51%, and the Vegas moneyline, puck line, and Under 6.5 all lost for -1.00u each. The model expected about 6 goals in total, and the game produced 7. New Jersey won by three, so the puck line, Vegas -1.5, lost with room to spare, and the total cleared 6.5 by half a goal.
Florida beat Winnipeg 5-2, another 7-goal night. The Winnipeg moneyline at +185 lost, the Winnipeg puck line, +1.5, lost, and the Under 6.5 lost. The model put Winnipeg's win chance at about 39% against the market's 34%, and the Under at about 61% against the market's 55%.
Calgary beat Seattle 6-2, 8 goals in all. The Seattle moneyline lost, and the Under 6.5 lost. Calgary scored 6, more than double the goals the model expected from the home side.
By market, the night divided evenly: moneyline 0-3 for -3.00u, totals 0-3 for -3.00u, puck line 0-2 for -2.00u. By strength, the moderate leans went 0-5 for -5.00u, the slight leans went 0-2 for -2.00u, and the one strong lean lost for -1.00u.
The strongest lean of the night was the Calgary total
The Under 6.5 in Calgary carried the largest gap between the model's number and the market's number on the hockey card, and the strongest rating. The model put the Under at about 59% against the market's 52%, with an expected total of about 6 goals. Calgary scored 6 on its own, and the game finished at 8 goals, 1.5 goals over the line.
Dustin Wolf was confirmed in net for Calgary, and Joey Daccord was the projected starter for Seattle. The model's number near the lock held that picture, and the lean was the Under at the locked line of 6.5.
College football: Sacramento State won outright, and the two early games went the other way
Tulane beat Charlotte 38-31. The Tulane -8.5 lean lost by 1.5 points: Tulane won by 7, one point short of the cover plus the half point. The Under 47.5 lost by a wide margin, as the game produced 69 points, 21.5 points over the market total. The model projected about 45 points in total and a Tulane win by about 12.5, with projected scores of about 29 for Tulane and about 16 for Charlotte. Both offenses scored well past the projection, and Charlotte's 31 points kept the margin inside the number.
The line moved a long way during the week. It opened at Tulane -13.5 and closed at -8.5, a move of 5 points toward Charlotte, while the model's margin sat near 12.5 all week. The game landed inside that gap: a 7-point win, between the closing line and the model's number.
Baylor beat UCF 41-9. The UCF +2.5 lean lost by a wide margin, as Baylor won by 32. The model projected a close game, about 26 to about 25 in UCF's favor. The game was not close. The total projection, by contrast, landed on the number: the model projected about 50 points, the market total was 49.5, and the game produced exactly 50. The gap on the total was half a point, so there was no total lean in the game.
Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 in the late game, which kicked off at 10:30pm ET on Friday. The Sacramento State +7.5 lean won outright, the only winning lean of the night in either sport. The model had Kent State winning by about 4.5, and the market had Kent State by 7.5 at the lock, after the line moved in from 10 during the week. Sacramento State won by 21, flipping the model's projected scores of about 25 for Kent State and about 21 for Sacramento State.
The season picture
Through Friday, the NHL card stands at 164-159 and +6.79u: the puck line at 44-35 and +19.42u, the moneyline at 64-65 and -5.37u, totals at 56-59 and -7.26u. Friday's 0-8 night moved the hockey card from +14.79u to +6.79u, and the puck line remains the market carrying the card. The NFL card, idle on Friday, stands at 64-63-1 and +5.78u. College football spreads now stand at 80-98-3 and -25.27u after Friday's leans, with totals tracked separately at 112-98-0. Thursday's college games were graded after yesterday's piece was written, and those results are not folded into the college season figures here; Friday's leans are counted forward from the record published through Wednesday.
The season record is built from hundreds of picks, and one night moves it by a little even when the night goes 0-8 in one sport. The puck line's season edge narrowed on Friday and still stands at +19.42u.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at, not the opening line and not the closing line. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick. A night where every lean loses is one night in a season of hundreds of picks, and the season record is the only sample large enough to read with any confidence.
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