Monday night: a 7-2 hockey card, a Chicago upset in Seattle, and one strong call that won
The night in one line
Monday finished 9-3 for +5.54u across the two sports that played. Hockey supplied nine graded leans and football supplied three, and both cards finished ahead. Hockey went 7-2 for +4.36u. Football went 2-1 for +1.18u. College football played no game on Monday, so its season figures stand where the Saturday piece left them and are not restated here. Four hockey games produced 23 goals, and one football game produced 51 points.
Football: Chicago won outright, and the total went the other way
Chicago beat Seattle 34-17 on Monday night, and both Chicago calls on the side won. The moneyline at +142 won for +1.42u, and Chicago +3.5 at -132 won for +0.76u. The total went the other way: 51 points were scored, so the Under 46.5 at -110 lost for -1.00u.
All three football calls sat in the slight tier, the smallest gap that still clears the bar for a call. On the moneyline, the model put Chicago at 45% and the market at 39.5%, a gap of 5 points. On the spread, the model put Chicago +3.5 at 54% and the market at 53%, a gap of 1 point. On the total, the model and the market sat level at 50% each, and the game still finished over the line. The fair numbers show the same picture: the model had Seattle by 1.5 points and a total of 45 points, against a market line of Seattle 3.5 and 46.5.
Hockey: Detroit as the underdog, Colorado as the heavy favorite
Detroit won 5-3 at Florida, and both Detroit calls won. The moneyline at +154 won for +1.54u, with the model at 47.5% against the market at 37.5%, a gap of 9.5 points. The puck line, Detroit +1.5 at -170, won for +0.59u, with the model at 66.5% against the market at 60.5%. Eight goals were scored in the game.
Colorado won 5-2 at Chicago, and both Colorado calls won. The moneyline at -230 won for +0.43u, with the model at 73% against the market at 67%. The puck line, Colorado -1.5 at +110, won for +1.10u, with the model at 53.5% against the market at 45.5%. The puck line call was the only strong call of the night, in either sport, and it won.
Boston won 3-2 in a shootout against Vegas, and the one winning call in that game was the total. The Under 6.5 at -125 won for +0.80u, with five goals scored. The Vegas moneyline at -118 lost for -1.00u, with the model at 56.5% against the market at 51.5%, and the Vegas puck line at +210 lost for -1.00u.
Calgary won 2-1 at San Jose, and both Calgary calls won. The moneyline at +105 won for +1.05u, with the model at 49% against the market at 46.5%. The Under 6.5 at -118 won for +0.85u, with three goals scored.
By market, hockey divided into three winning slices. The moneyline went 3-1 for +2.02u. The totals went 2-0 for +1.65u. The puck line went 2-1 for +0.69u. The two losses both came in the Boston game, on the Vegas side, and the other three games supplied no losing call at all.
The strength split, one night after the reverse
Sunday ended with the slight tier ahead and the strong tier at 0-6. Monday ended with the same shape, in a stronger form. The slight tier went 5-1 for +3.88u, with football at 2-1 and hockey at 3-0. The moderate tier went 3-2 for +0.56u, all in hockey. The strong tier held a single call, the Colorado puck line, and it won for +1.10u.
The tiers sort the size of the gap between the model's number and the market's number. A slight label means the gap was the smallest that still cleared the bar. A strong label means the gap was the largest on the card. One night does not reorder the tiers, and two nights in a row with the slight tier ahead does not reorder them either. Detroit's moneyline gap was wide, Calgary's moneyline gap was narrow, and both won.
The season picture
Through Monday, football stands at 76-80-1 and +0.11u on tiered leans: the spread at 29-18 and +7.98u, the totals at 26-31 and -7.57u, and the moneyline at 21-31-1 and -0.30u. Hockey stands at 183-177 and +7.18u: the puck line at 48-40 and +18.27u, the moneyline at 72-73 and -5.66u, and the totals at 63-64 and -5.43u. The puck line remains the market carrying the hockey card, by a wide margin, and the football spread remains the market carrying the football card.
Monday moved both season totals in the same direction. Football moved from behind to just ahead, and hockey added to a lead that was already there. Neither move changes the shape of either card. A single night of 9-3 is a good night, and it sits inside a season that still has a long way to run.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at, not the opening line and not the closing line. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. A line that moves after the lock does not change the grade. Trends add context around a pick, and a night where every tier wins is the normal shape of a card too, on a smaller card.
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