Saturday: a 100-point shootout, two shutouts, and a hockey card that finished behind
The night in one line
Hockey finished 7-10 for -3.08u. College football finished 37-37-2 on leans for -3.36u at -110. Across the two sports, 44-47-2 and -6.44u. The NFL played no game on Saturday, so its card stands exactly where Friday left it. Ten hockey games produced 68 goals, and 47 college games produced two shutouts and one game with 100 points. The hockey story is simple: the totals went 4-2 and the moneyline went 2-5. The college story is a split slate decided by the totals, which went 18-20 while the spreads went 19-17-2.
Hockey: the totals won, and the moneyline did not
By market, the hockey card divided cleanly. The moneyline went 2-5 for -3.93u. The totals went 4-2 for +2.26u. The puck line went 1-3 for -1.40u. Three of the ten games finished with nine goals: Boston beat Chicago 5-4 in overtime, St. Louis beat Detroit 5-4, and Nashville beat Tampa Bay 5-4 in a shootout. Every total on the card sat at 6.5 except one, the Under 5.5 in Detroit, which lost with nine goals scored. Two of the four total wins came by a half point.
By strength, no tier carried the night: the strong tier held a single pick, Boston -1.5, which lost in overtime for -1.00u; the moderate tier went 2-2 for -0.53u; and the slight tier went 5-7 for -1.55u, holding five of the seven wins.
Ottawa: the one game where all three calls came in
Ottawa supplied the best game on the hockey card. The Senators won 5-1 in San Jose, and all three locked calls in the game won: the moneyline at -155 for +0.65u, the puck line at +160 for +1.60u, and the Under 6.5 for +0.93u. The model put Ottawa's win chance at about 62% against the market's 58%. The puck line win, at +160, was the largest single gain of the hockey night.
Boston supplied the other overtime story. The Bruins beat Chicago 5-4, and the moneyline won for +0.42u while the Over 6.5 won for +1.14u, but the puck line, Boston -1.5, lost because the winning margin was a single goal. The model put Boston's win chance at about 72% against the market's 68%. One game, three markets: the single overtime goal was the difference between the moneyline and the puck line.
Elsewhere, the half point decided two more totals. Vancouver lost 2-4 to Toronto, six goals in all, and the Under 6.5 won for +1.05u. Colorado beat Calgary 5-2, seven goals in all, and the Under 6.5 lost. Edmonton shut out the Islanders 4-0, Montreal beat Pittsburgh 5-4, Dallas beat Columbus 3-1, and Buffalo beat Los Angeles 3-2, and the moneyline lost in four of those five games.
College football: a split slate, decided by the totals
The college slate covered 47 games, and the two markets pointed in opposite directions. The spreads went 19-17-2 for +0.27u. The totals went 18-20 for -3.64u. Combined, 37-37-2 for -3.36u at -110.
The spread wins included the day's most one-sided games. Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7, and Wake Forest -13.5 won with room to spare. The model had Wake Forest by about 15.5, and the final margin was 44. Duke beat Boston College 47-2, and Duke -7 won while the Under 49.5 won by a half point, with 49 points scored. UCLA shut out Nevada 27-0, and UCLA -22.5 won. On the other side, Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC as a 6.5-point favorite.
Two shutouts and a 100-point game
The total that decided the college night was the highest-scoring game of the day. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49, 100 points in all, and the Under 58.5 lost by a wide margin. Iowa State +10 also won, winning outright as a double-digit underdog. At the other end, Iowa shut out Wisconsin 30-0, and both calls in that game lost: Wisconsin +2.5, and the Over 36.5, with 30 points scored. The totals card lost on both ends of the scoring range.
The half point mattered in the totals, too. UNLV beat Northern Illinois 31-24, 55 points in all, and the Under 55.5 won by a half point. Memphis beat Army 49-22, 71 points in all, and the Over 59.5 won. Boise State beat Texas State 46-45, 91 points in all, in a game where the model had no lean on either market. Nine games had no lean on one market or the other, and the card stayed silent there: a lean appears only where the model and the market disagree by enough to matter.
The season picture
Through Saturday, the hockey card stands at 171-169 and +3.71u: the puck line at 45-38 and +18.02u, the moneyline at 66-70 and -9.30u, and totals at 60-61 and -5.00u. The puck line remains the market carrying the hockey card. The NFL card stands at 64-63-1 and +5.78u, unchanged with no Saturday game.
College football spreads stand at 99-117-5 and -27.00u, with totals tracked separately at 130-120-0. Those season figures fold in Thursday's two games, which were graded after Thursday's piece and went 0-4 on leans: James Madison beat Troy 24-21, and North Texas beat Florida Atlantic 48-41, and both the spread and the total lost in each game. Thursday's games are counted here once, and only here.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at, not the opening line and not the closing line. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick. A split night can finish behind, and the season record is the only sample large enough to read with any confidence.
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