Season check: the puck line is carrying hockey, the spread is carrying football
The season in one line
Through Thursday night, the hockey card stands at 197-199 for -1.30u, and the football card stands at 77-82-1 for -0.98u. Both cards sit close to level, and both cards have the same shape: one market ahead, two markets behind, and the lead market doing the heavy lifting.
Hockey: the puck line carries the card
Hockey's three markets point in different directions. The puck line stands at 49-47 for +12.81u. The moneyline stands at 78-83 for -10.54u. The totals stand at 70-69 for -3.56u.
The puck line is the only hockey market ahead, and it is ahead by more than the card is behind. Without it, the hockey card would read 148-152 for -14.11u. With it, the card reads 197-199 for -1.30u. That is the whole story of the hockey season so far: one market paying for the other two.
The moneyline is the market holding the card back. It holds the most calls of any hockey market, 161 decided, and it sits 5 games under level at -10.54u. The totals sit closest to level, one game over at 70-69, and -3.56u behind.
Football: the spread carries the card
Football has the same shape with different markets. The spread stands at 29-19 for +6.98u. The totals stand at 27-31 for -6.66u. The moneyline stands at 21-32-1 for -1.30u.
The spread is the only football market ahead, and it holds the best record on the card at 29-19. Without it, the football card would read 48-63-1 for -7.96u. With it, the card reads 77-82-1 for -0.98u.
The totals are the market holding football back, 4 games under level at -6.66u. The moneyline sits at 21-32-1, with the one push on the card coming from the October 11 tie between the Giants and Washington.
The week by strength
The strength split sorts each call by the size of the gap at the lock. This week in hockey, Monday through Thursday, the three tiers went in three directions.
The slight tier went 9-16 for -6.85u. The moderate tier went 9-6 for +0.99u. The strong tier went 3-2 for +1.74u. Combined, hockey went 21-24 for -4.12u across the four nights.
Thursday supplied most of the slight tier's week. The slight tier won once in eleven tries on Thursday, for -8.40u, after going 3-0 on Monday for +2.70u, 3-4 on Tuesday for -0.94u, and 2-2 on Wednesday for -0.21u. The moderate tier finished ahead on three of the four nights, and the strong tier finished ahead on three of the four nights. The strong tier's two losses both came on Tuesday.
Football played on two of the four nights, and its week by strength is smaller. The slight tier went 2-3 for -0.82u: Chicago's two winning calls on Monday, then Baltimore's spread and moneyline both losing on Thursday. The strong tier held one call, the Over 39.5 in Jacksonville, and it won for +0.91u. The moderate tier held no call. Football's week finished 3-3 for +0.09u.
The swing inside the season
The season totals hide how fast the picture moves. Hockey stood at +7.18u after Monday night. Three nights later it stood at -1.30u, a swing of +8.48u: Tuesday -4.84u, Wednesday +2.75u, Thursday -6.39u. Football stood at +0.11u after Monday and at -0.98u after Thursday, a swing of +1.09u from a single night in Jacksonville.
A card that sits near level after 396 hockey calls and 160 football calls is a card where the edges are thin and the nights are loud. One market carrying each card is the shape of both seasons so far, and the season sample is the only one large enough to read with any confidence.
College football season figures are not restated here. The feed's season totals are being reconciled against the journal before the next season-figures piece, and the week's college games are counted in the nightly pieces, once, and only there.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick.
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