Sunday: every strong NFL call lost, and Carolina opened hockey with a shutout
The night in one line
Sunday finished 15-22 for -7.75u across the two sports that played. Football supplied 26 graded leans and hockey supplied 11, and the split ran the same way in both: the slight tier finished ahead and the strong tier finished with nothing. Football went 10-16 for -6.85u. Hockey went 5-6 for -0.90u. College football played no game on Sunday, so its season figures stand where the Saturday piece left them and are not restated here. Five hockey games produced 36 goals, and 12 football games produced one shutout, Atlanta scoring no points at Tampa Bay.
Football: the slight tier carried the card, and the strong tier did not
By market, football divided into three losing slices. The moneyline went 2-5 for -3.13u. The spread went 5-6 for -1.52u. The totals went 3-5 for -2.20u. By strength, the shape was sharper. The slight tier went 8-4 for +3.27u. The moderate tier went 2-7 for -5.12u. The strong tier went 0-5 for -5.00u, with all five calls on the moneyline: Baltimore, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Tennessee, each as an underdog, each losing outright.
The two heaviest defeats on the card were both one-sided. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7, and both Indianapolis calls lost: the moneyline at +380 and Indianapolis +10.5. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10, and the Baltimore moneyline and Baltimore +3.5 both lost, while the Under 54.5 won with 46 points scored. Philadelphia lost 27-10 at Washington, and all three Philadelphia calls lost: the moneyline at +220, Philadelphia +6.5, and the Over 40.5, with 37 points scored. Those three games alone supplied seven losses.
The slight tier told the other half of the day. Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0, and both Tampa Bay calls won: the moneyline and Tampa Bay -1.5, while the Over 43.5 lost with only 16 points scored. Denver beat Kansas City 28-24, and Denver +1.5 won. Las Vegas beat the Jets 38-33, and both Las Vegas calls won: the moneyline at +110 and Las Vegas +1.5. The Rams beat the Chargers 24-9, and both Rams calls won: the Rams -6.5 and the Under 45.5, with 33 points scored.
The half point decided two more games: New England beat Miami 24-19, so the Over 41.5 won and New England -6.5 lost; Detroit beat Minnesota 19-15, so Minnesota +3.5 lost by a half point.
Arizona beat Dallas 33-30, and both Dallas calls lost: Dallas -7.5 and the Under 54.5, with 63 points scored. Cleveland lost 27-6 at Pittsburgh, and the Over 38.5 lost with 33 points scored. Tennessee lost 43-36 at Cincinnati, and Tennessee +12.5 won while the Tennessee moneyline at +575 lost and the Under 46.5 lost, with 79 points scored.
Hockey: a shutout in Carolina, and nine goals in Philadelphia
Hockey divided by market, with the moneyline ahead and the totals behind. The moneyline went 3-2 for +1.62u. The totals went 1-3 for -2.07u. The puck line went 1-1 for -0.44u. By strength, the moderate tier went 3-2 for +1.57u, the slight tier went 2-3 for -1.46u, and the strong tier held a single call, the Under 5.5 in Philadelphia, which lost.
Carolina supplied the largest margin of the hockey night. The Hurricanes beat Winnipeg 7-0, and all three Winnipeg calls lost: the moneyline at +225, Winnipeg +1.5 on the puck line, and the Under 6.5. Minnesota beat Washington 5-1, and the Washington moneyline lost.
Philadelphia supplied the highest-scoring game of the hockey night. The Flyers beat Utah 6-3, and the moneyline at +154 won for +1.54u while the puck line at -180 won for +0.56u, but the Under 5.5 lost with nine goals scored. Edmonton beat the Rangers 4-1, and both Edmonton calls won: the moneyline at +110 for +1.10u and the Under 6.5 for +0.93u. Anaheim beat Ottawa 6-3, and the moneyline at -102 won for +0.98u while the Under 6.5 lost with nine goals scored.
The season picture
Through Sunday, football stands at 74-79-1 and -1.06u on tiered leans: the spread at 28-18 and +7.22u, the totals at 26-30 and -6.57u, and the moneyline at 20-31-1 and -1.72u. Hockey stands at 176-175 and +2.82u: the puck line at 46-39 and +17.58u, the moneyline at 69-72 and -7.68u, and the totals at 61-64 and -7.08u. The puck line remains the market carrying the hockey card, by a wide margin.
The strength split on Sunday is worth holding next to the season shape. A strong label means the gap between the model's number and the market's number was the largest on the card, and on Sunday the largest gaps all landed on underdog moneylines in football and on one low total in hockey. A slight label means the gap was the smallest that still cleared the bar for a call, and on Sunday the smallest gaps produced the only winning tier. One night does not reorder the tiers: the tiers sort the size of a disagreement, not how sure a call is.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at, not the opening line and not the closing line. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. A line that moves after the lock does not change the grade. Trends add context around a pick, and a night where one tier wins and another loses is the normal shape of a card.
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