Thursday night: the slight tier went 1-10, and the card finished 5-15

The night in one line

Thursday finished 5-15 for -10.48u across the three sports. Hockey supplied fourteen graded leans and finished 4-10 for -6.39u. Football supplied three leans and finished 1-2 for -1.09u. College football supplied three leans and finished 0-3 for -3.00u. Eleven hockey games produced 72 goals.

Hockey: the slight tier went 1-10

By market, the hockey card split three ways. The moneyline went 2-5 for -3.18u. The totals went 2-3 for -1.21u. The puck line went 0-2 for -2.00u.

The four wins:

Anaheim beat Edmonton 5-4, and the Anaheim moneyline at +160 won for +1.60u, in the slight tier, with the model at 39% against the market at 37% — the largest single win, and the only slight win of the night.

Tampa Bay beat Chicago 4-1, and the moneyline at -455 won for +0.22u, in the moderate tier, with the model at 83% against the market at 79%.

Vegas beat Detroit 2-1, and the Under 6.5 at -145 won for +0.69u, in the moderate tier, with the model at 60% against the market at 55%.

The Rangers beat Philadelphia 3-2, and the Under 5.5 at +110 won for +1.10u, in the strong tier, with the model at 54% against the market at 46%, a gap of 8 points. It was the widest gap and the strongest label on the card, and the second-largest win. Five goals were scored.

The ten losses piled up in the slight tier. St. Louis lost 5-4 in overtime at New Jersey, and both calls lost: the moneyline at +180, with the model at 38% against the market at 34%, and the Under 5.5 at +110, with 9 goals scored. Carolina beat the Islanders 5-3, and their moneyline at +164 lost, with the model at 39% against the market at 36%. Philadelphia lost 3-2 at the Rangers, and their moneyline at +124 lost, with the model at 45% against the market at 43%.

Boston beat Pittsburgh 6-2, and both Pittsburgh calls lost: the moneyline at -112, with the model at 53% against the market at 50%, and the puck line at -1.5 and +205. Columbus beat Dallas 2-1 in a shootout, and both Dallas calls lost: the moneyline at -130 and the puck line at -1.5 and +195.

Winnipeg beat Vancouver 6-2, and the Under 6.5 at -118 lost with 8 goals scored. Nashville beat Colorado 3-2 in overtime, and the Over 6.5 at -102 lost with 5 goals scored.

Montreal beat Utah 5-4 in overtime, with no tiered lean on the board.

The strength split, one night after the reverse

Wednesday ended with the slight tier at 2-2 and the moderate and strong tiers unbeaten. Thursday ended with the slight tier at 1-10 for -8.40u, the moderate tier at 2-0 for +0.91u, and the strong tier at 1-0 for +1.10u.

The tiers sort the size of the gap at the lock, and one night does not reorder them. A slight label is a narrow gap, not a settled result. The moderate and strong tiers held their calls and finished green.

Football: Jacksonville won 33-10, and the total carried the card

Jacksonville beat Baltimore 33-10, and the football card finished 1-2 for -1.09u. The model had Jacksonville by 7 against a market line of 9.5, and a model total of 46 against a market total of 39.5. Jacksonville won by 23, covering the 9.5, and 43 points were scored.

The Over 39.5 at -110 won for +0.91u, in the strong tier, a gap of 6.5 points against the market total. It cleared the line by 3.5 points.

The other two calls both sat with Baltimore: the moneyline at +380 lost, in the slight tier, and Baltimore +9.5 at -110 lost, in the slight tier, by 13.5 points against the line. Two trend rows sit outside the lean totals, and they split on the night.

College football: both totals went over

The college slate covered two games, and all three calls lost. The spreads went 0-1 for -1.00u. The totals went 0-2 for -2.00u. Combined, 0-3 for -3.00u at -110.

Florida Atlantic beat UTSA 60-29, and both calls in that game lost. UTSA -7 lost, in the slight tier: Florida Atlantic won by 31 points, against a model margin of Florida Atlantic by 9 and a market line of 7. The Under 72.5 lost, in the moderate tier: 89 points were scored, against a model total of 62 and a market total of 72.5, a gap of 10.5 points. The game cleared the line by 16.5 points.

James Madison beat Southern Miss 54-23, and only one call was on the board. There was no spread call: the model had James Madison by 13 against a market line of 13.5, too small a gap to call. The Under 58.5 lost, in the slight tier, with 77 points scored against a model total of 52.5 and a market total of 58.5. James Madison won by 31 points, and the total still went over by 18.5 points.

The season picture

Through Thursday, the hockey card stands at 197-199 and -1.30u: the puck line at 49-47 and +12.81u, the moneyline at 78-83 and -10.54u, and the totals at 70-69 and -3.56u.

The football card stands at 77-82-1 and -0.98u, after the 1-2 night. College football season figures are not restated here: they stand where the Saturday piece left them, and Thursday's three games are counted in the night figures above, once, and only there.

How to read tonight's card

The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick.

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