Tuesday night: the totals won, the puck line went 0-4, and Buffalo won outright in Oxford
The night in one line
Tuesday finished 7-12 for -5.02u across the two sports that played. Hockey supplied 15 graded leans and finished 5-10 for -4.84u. College football supplied two games and finished 2-2 for -0.18u at -110. The NFL played no game on Tuesday, so its card stands exactly where Monday left it. Eleven hockey games produced 76 goals. The hockey story is simple: the totals won, the moneyline did not, and the puck line lost every call it held.
Hockey: three totals won, and the puck line lost all four
By market, the hockey card divided cleanly. The totals went 3-1 for +2.24u. The moneyline went 2-5 for -3.08u. The puck line went 0-4 for -4.00u. The totals were the only market ahead, and the puck line supplied the largest single slice of the loss.
All three total wins came in low-scoring games. Utah beat Toronto 3-2, and the Under 6.5 at +114 won for +1.14u, with the model at 49% against the market at 45%. The Rangers beat St. Louis 3-1, and the Under 5.5 at +110 won for +1.10u, with the model at 51.5% against the market at 45.5%. Vegas beat Pittsburgh 3-2, and the Under 6.5 at +100 won for +1.00u. The one total loss held the widest gap on the card: Minnesota beat Philadelphia 4-2, and the Under 5.5 at +110 lost for -1.00u, with the model at 58.5% against the market at 45.5%, a gap of 13 points. The gap describes the size of the disagreement at the lock. It does not decide the score.
The moneyline wins both came by a single goal. Winnipeg beat Montreal 5-4 in overtime, and Winnipeg at +140 won for +1.40u, with the model at 43% against the market at 40%. Anaheim beat Vancouver 5-4, and Anaheim at -192 won for +0.52u. The losses included the night's most one-sided game: Columbus beat Colorado 7-2, and Colorado at -125 lost for -1.00u, with the model at 60.5% against the market at 53.5%. Detroit (+225), Edmonton (+136, in a shootout), St. Louis (+100), and Philadelphia (+154) all lost as well.
The puck line lost in four different ways, and three of the four were close. Detroit +1.5 and Philadelphia +1.5 both lost by two goals, 4-2 in each game. Anaheim -1.5 lost because Anaheim won by one goal, 5-4. Colorado -1.5 was the one call that was never close: Columbus won 7-2, and the call at +195 lost for -1.00u, with the model at 40.5% against the market at 32.5%. Two games held no graded lean at all: Nashville beat Carolina 4-1, and Dallas beat Washington 6-5 in the highest-scoring game of the night.
The strength split, one night after the reverse
Monday ended with the strong tier holding a single call, and that call won. Tuesday ended with the strong tier holding two calls, and both lost. The slight tier went 3-4 for -0.94u, holding three of the five wins. The moderate tier went 2-4 for -1.90u. The strong tier went 0-2 for -2.00u.
The two strong calls held gaps of 13 points and 8 points. The tiers sort the size of the gap at the lock, and one night does not reorder them.
College football: a split in two Tuesday games
The college slate covered two games, both in the Mid-American Conference. The spreads went 1-1 for -0.09u. The totals went 1-1 for -0.09u. Combined, 2-2 for -0.18u at -110.
Ohio beat Akron 28-20, and the spread call won. Akron +12.5, in the moderate tier, won with room to spare: Ohio won by 8 points, inside the number. The model had Ohio by 8 points against a market line of Ohio by 12.5, a gap of 4.5 points. The total in the same game lost: the Over 51.5 lost with 48 points scored, against a model total of 57.5 points, a gap of 6 points. The model expected more scoring than the market expected, and the game finished under both numbers.
Buffalo beat Miami (OH) 34-31, winning outright as the road underdog, and the spread call lost. Miami (OH) -6.5, in the moderate tier, lost outright: Miami lost the game, so the spread never came into it. The model had Miami (OH) by 12 points against a market line of 6.5, a gap of 5.5 points. The total in the same game won by a wide margin: the Over 45.5 won with 65 points scored, against a model total of 51.5 points and a market total of 45.5, a gap of 6 points. Both Tuesday games had the model total sitting above the market total. One finished over, and one finished under.
The season picture
Through Tuesday, the hockey card stands at 188-187 and +2.34u: the puck line at 48-44 and +14.27u, the moneyline at 74-78 and -8.74u, and the totals at 66-65 and -3.19u. The puck line remains the market carrying the card, even after an 0-4 night.
The football card stands at 76-80-1 and +0.11u, unchanged with no Tuesday game. College football season figures are not restated here: they stand where the Saturday piece left them, and Tuesday's two games are counted in the night figures above, once, and only there. The season record is the only sample large enough to read with any confidence.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at, not the opening line and not the closing line. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick.
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