Wednesday night: five of seven hockey leans won, and Sacramento State covered 25.5 points
The night in one line
Wednesday finished 8-4 for +3.48u across the two sports that played. Hockey supplied seven graded leans and finished 5-2 for +2.75u. College football supplied three games and finished 3-2 for +0.73u at -110. The NFL played no game on Wednesday, so its card stands exactly where Monday left it. Four hockey games produced 23 goals.
Hockey: the moneyline went 2-0, and the puck line split
By market, the hockey card divided cleanly. The moneyline went 2-0 for +1.37u. The totals went 2-1 for +0.84u. The puck line went 1-1 for +0.54u.
Los Angeles beat San Jose 7-2, and both Los Angeles calls won. The moneyline at -166 won for +0.60u, in the moderate tier, with the model at 66% against the market at 60%. The puck line at -1.5 and +154 won for +1.54u, in the strong tier, with the model at 46% against the market at 38%, a gap of 8 points. That was the widest gap on the card, the strongest label on the card, and the largest single win of the night. The puck line won by five goals.
Seattle beat Calgary 2-1 in overtime, and the Seattle card split three ways. The moneyline at -130 won for +0.77u, in the slight tier, with the model at 58% against the market at 54.5%. The total went the other way from the score: the Under 6.5 at -122 won for +0.82u, in the moderate tier, with the model at 59.5% against the market at 52.5%, and only 3 goals were scored. The puck line at -1.5 and +180 lost for -1.00u, in the slight tier, with the model at 38% against the market at 34.5%. Seattle won by one goal, and the puck line needs two.
Ottawa beat Buffalo 2-1, and the Under 6.5 at +102 won for +1.02u, in the slight tier, with the model at 50.5% against the market at 47.5%.
Florida beat Chicago 5-3, and the Under 5.5 at +114 lost for -1.00u, in the slight tier, with the model at 49.5% against the market at 45%. Eight goals were scored, and it was the only total loss of the evening.
The strength split, one night after the reverse
Tuesday ended with the strong tier holding two calls, and both lost. Wednesday ended with the strong tier holding one call, and it won. The slight tier went 2-2 for -0.21u, holding two of the five wins and both of the losses. The moderate tier went 2-0 for +1.42u. The strong tier went 1-0 for +1.54u.
The tiers sort the size of the gap at the lock, and one night does not reorder them. A strong label is a wide gap, not a settled result, and Wednesday is the night the wide gap and the result lined up.
College football: Sacramento State covered, Massachusetts did not
The college slate covered three games, and the spreads and the totals went in opposite directions. The spreads went 1-1 for -0.09u. The totals went 2-1 for +0.82u. Combined, 3-2 for +0.73u at -110.
Toledo beat Sacramento State 20-17, and both calls in that game won. Sacramento State +25.5 won: Toledo won by 3 points, against a model margin of Toledo by 22.5 and a market line of 25.5, a gap of 3 points. The Under 52.5 won with 37 points scored, against a model total of 49.5 and a market total of 52.5, a gap of 3 points. It was the only game of the night where both sides of the card came in.
Massachusetts beat Ball State 31-30, and the two calls in that game split. Massachusetts -2.5 lost: Massachusetts won by 1 point, against a model margin of 4.5 and a market line of 2.5, a gap of 2 points. The Over 48.5 won with 61 points scored, against a model total of 52.5 and a market total of 48.5, a gap of 4 points. The game finished over both numbers.
Central Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 35-7 on a neutral field, and only one call was on the board. There was no spread call: the model had Central Michigan by 2 points against a market line of 2.5, too small a gap to call. The Over 44.5 lost with 42 points scored, against a model total of 47 and a market total of 44.5, a gap of 2.5 points. Central Michigan won by 28 points, and the total still stayed under.
The season picture
Through Wednesday, the hockey card stands at 193-189 and +5.09u: the puck line at 49-45 and +14.81u, the moneyline at 76-78 and -7.36u, and the totals at 68-66 and -2.35u. The puck line remains the market carrying the card, even after a 1-1 night.
The football card stands at 76-80-1 and +0.11u, unchanged with no Wednesday game. College football season figures are not restated here: they stand where the Saturday piece left them, and Wednesday's three games are counted in the night figures above, once, and only there. The season record is the only sample large enough to read with any confidence.
How to read tonight's card
The same rules apply every night. Picks lock two hours before the start, and they are graded at the line they locked at, not the opening line and not the closing line. The comparison that matters is the model's number against the market's number at the lock, to the nearest half point. Trends add context around a pick.
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