Week 9 line moves: Baltimore swung 14 points on a quarterback change

A line is a price, and prices move when new information arrives. This week the new information was mostly at quarterback. Across the fifteen Week 9 games, the spread moved 2 points or more in six, and the total moved 3 points or more in nine; four spreads and one total did not move at all. The model's number is the anchor here: a move that crosses it says the market went past the model's read; a move that stops short says the market moved partway. Every number is the market number as of November 7, rounded to the nearest half point.

The two quarterback moves

Baltimore is the week's biggest move. The Ravens opened as a 4.5 point favorite against Jacksonville and closed as a 9.5 point underdog, a 14 point swing. Lamar Jackson was out, Joe Fagnano started, and the market re-priced the game from one favorite to the other. The total moved with it, from 49.5 down to 39.5, a 10 point fall. The model had Jacksonville by 7 with a total of 46, so the market crossed the model's number on both the spread and the total. Jacksonville won 33-10, 43 points in all, over the closing total of 39.5; the strong total call in the feed won.

Philadelphia is the week's second-biggest move. The Eagles opened as a 5.5 point favorite against the Giants and now sit as a 3.5 point underdog, a 9 point swing. Joe Milton III starts at quarterback with Jalen Hurts out; DeVonta Smith is out and Tanner McKee is questionable. The model has the Giants by 0.5, so the market crossed the model's number and ended 3 points past it. The total tells a different story: it fell from 44.5 at the open, through 40.5 and 39.5, to 38.5 now, moving away from the model total of 44. The spread has held at 3.5 since November 3; the total kept moving.

The rest of the spread board

Four more spreads moved 2 points or more. Dallas at Indianapolis moved 3 points toward Dallas, from Indianapolis plus 1.5 to plus 4.5; the model has Dallas by 4, so the market crossed the model's number by half a point. Houston at the Chargers moved 2.5 points toward Houston, from the Chargers plus 3 to plus 5.5; the model has Houston by 5, so the market crossed that number by half a point too. Cincinnati at Atlanta moved 2 points toward Atlanta, from Cincinnati minus 5.5 to minus 3.5; the model has Cincinnati by 4.5, so the market crossed the model's number and landed a point short of it. Arizona at Seattle is the exception: Seattle moved from minus 10.5 to minus 8.5, 2 points toward Arizona and away from a model margin of 10.5, with Drew Lock listed at quarterback in the feed.

Five of the six biggest spread moves crossed the model's number. The four spreads that did not move are Cleveland at New Orleans, Detroit at Miami, the Jets at Kansas City, and Las Vegas at San Francisco. Detroit at Miami 6.5, the Jets at Kansas City 9.5, and Las Vegas at San Francisco 9.5, all unchanged from the open.

The totals ran further

Nine totals moved 3 points or more. Three belong to the games above: Baltimore down 10, Philadelphia down 6, Seattle down 5. The other six are the Jets at Kansas City, up 6 to 47.5, crossing the model total of 45; Las Vegas at San Francisco, up 4 to 52.5, crossing the model total of 51; Buffalo at Minnesota, down 4 to 43.5, crossing the model total of 45.5; the Rams at Washington, down 3 to 47.5, landing half a point from the model total of 47; Green Bay at New England, down 3 to 44.5, landing half a point from the model total of 44; and Cincinnati at Atlanta, up 3 to 52.5, moving away from the model total of 47.5. Minnesota's Kyler Murray is out for Monday with a hamstring strain, per the feed's November 7 injury note.

The smaller moves: Detroit at Miami rose 2 to 49.5, crossing the model total of 48.5; Denver at Carolina rose 2 to 44.5 and Cleveland at New Orleans rose a point to 42.5, both moving toward the model; Houston at the Chargers fell 2 to 40.5, moving away; Dallas at Indianapolis fell a point to 51.5, landing exactly on the model total; Tampa Bay at Chicago is the one total that did not move, at 47.5 against a model total of 44.5.

Count the Sunday totals: nine of the thirteen that moved went toward the model's number or through it; the other four are the Giants at Philadelphia, Arizona at Seattle, Cincinnati at Atlanta, and Houston at the Chargers. Thursday's total crossed the model's number as well, falling 10 points through the model's 46.

How to read a move

A move is information arriving, not a verdict. The opener is the market's first read, the move is the update, and the lock is the number that grades. The model's number moves when its inputs move, not when the market moves: Dallas went from 2.5 to 4 in the model during the week, Denver from 6 to 7, and the Giants from 1 to 0.5.

Compare the move to the model number, not to the opener alone. A move that crosses the model number means the disagreement changed sides: the market now sits on the far side of the model's read. A move that stops short means the market moved partway toward the model and no further. Neither says which number is right. Lines keep moving until two hours before kickoff, when the card locks and the graded number is set.

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