Editorial policy

Trust the Trends publishes sports models and writing about them. This page says how everything on the site is made, so you can judge it for yourself.

Picks and numbers

Each sport has its own model. It prices every game, sets its number beside the betting line (DraftKings is the line of record), and where the two disagree its side is the pick. A pick is locked before the game starts and never changed afterward. Every pick is graded at the line and price it locked at, wins and losses both, and the records are public.

Trends are context

A trend is the model's own record in a situation. It says when the model has done better or worse. It is never a separate pick and never a promise.

Articles

Articles are written from the site's own data: the locked picks, the graded results and the model's tests. They are drafted with AI assistance and pass automatic checks before they are published: a minimum length, a fixed vocabulary, rounded line numbers, and no promises of results. Articles explain what happened and why it matters; they do not tell you to place a bet.

Tests we run and fail

New ideas are tested on past seasons before they reach the site. Many fail, and the ones that do are listed on each model page. Nothing is added because it looks good in one season.

Corrections

When a published page is wrong or misleading, we fix it in place and add a dated correction note. Report a problem through the contact page .

Funding

The site is supported by advertising and by sportsbook affiliate links, described in the affiliate disclosure . Neither influences a model or a pick.